Markets swing between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. This tool helps you understand when risk is being underestimated or overestimated — without predicting prices.
Risk changes with confidence, leverage, and expectations — not just volatility.
When everyone feels safe, risk is often underpriced. When fear dominates, opportunity grows.
Not a top/bottom caller. It helps you judge which side of the cycle you’re on.
Look at narratives, leverage, valuations, and how “easy” money feels.
Decide which side is more likely and how extreme it feels — no need to be exact.
Extreme optimism → reduce risk. Extreme pessimism → prepare and act patiently.